Democrats’ growing talk of a coming blue wave in November could backfire. The Democrats’ winning of special elections have fueled more talk about the anticipated blue wave. Even in the special elections that Democrats have lost, they are encouraged by the Republicans’ reduced margins. However, Democrats must beware of over confidence, particularly if it impacts turnout. Complacency could lead to catastrophe.
We need look back no further than 2016 to see how Democrats turnout was diminished in part by a belief that Clinton would easily defeat Trump for the presidency. Nearly all the polls showed Clinton winning and Democrats were totally caught flat-footed by the outcome.
There are some distressing signs that the chances of a Democratic blue wave in the November mid-terms is shrinking. The latest average April generic congressional polling has fallen from the December 2017 highs. The generic congressional polls showed as much as a 13-point spread between Democrats and Republicans in December. In December, 49% of voters indicated they would vote for Democrats while only 36% would vote for Republicans. The latest April polls show that margin has decreased to just 6 points. If the election were held today, voter support for Democrats stands at 45% vs. 39% for Republicans.
Democrats still lead in the polls, but it’s very disturbing that the margin has diminished so significantly in just four months. We have six months to go before the 2018 midterms; if that trend were to continue, the Democrats’ lead would evaporate.
There has been a great deal of predictions made about the percentage spread necessary for the Democrats to take back control of the House and Senate. It ranges from 7 to 11 points. The Cook Political Report suggests that Democrats will need a 7 point spread to take back control of the House.
According to a March report by the Brennan Center for Justice, Democrats must win by a margin of 11 percent to retake the House. The Brennan Center makes that prediction based on how successfully Republicans have gerrymandered districts in their favor.
“Because of maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in 2018 to gain control of the House of Representatives,” the Brennan Center says. “To attain a bare majority, Democrats would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades. Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps. As of mid-March, Democrats held an average lead of nearly eight percentage points, 48-40. Based on historical election results, a lead of this magnitude should net Democrats around 30 additional seats — comfortably more than the 24 they need to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Because of gerrymandering, however, that is no longer the case. Even the court-ordered redrawing of Pennsylvania’s congressional map will only improve Democrats’ chances slightly.”
Whether Cook or the Brennan Center is correct, the shrinking Democratic margin over Republicans in national polls should be a wake-up call. The blue wave isn’t inevitable and Democrats can’t afford to be complacent or take anything for granted. Democrats underestimated Donald Trump once before and paid the ultimate price. We must act like we are 6 points behind rather than ahead at this point. Democrats must redouble their efforts and maintain the passion and energy through November or the blue wave could become a blue ripple.
by Rick Smith
Posted 5/1/18
5 Comments on "Are Democrats Getting Overconfident About A Blue Wave?"
I agree completely. I have never considered that a blue wave is coming. I think that was just some premature vision by some of our activists and especially our newer activists. Many of us who have been activists for a long time know that it takes a lot of work and money to win and it doesn’t come easy. It should never be considered on the “wave” basis. The best way to win is to have party unity, good ideas, good candidates that can tell the Democratic story, good voter ID program and GOTV program and MONEY.
Absolutely correct. And that thought scares the beJeezus out of me. No matter where the candidate is, no matter how Blue (there are still pockets that are), they MUST runa as if they were ‘way behind, as if the polls weren’t saying they were up by 4-11 points but saying they were DOWN by double that.
Oh, and tell the DCCC to butt out!
This article states many truths however no suggestions on how to hold the voting public’s attention all the way to the ballot box . I made suggestions before of what democratic candidates should be saying to no avail to speak of . So I will restate a few talking points ……. Touting fiscal responsibility, actual oversight of how our tax dollars are spent, getting a dollar vale in return for a dollar spent . {which has not been the case} Using the term of fair worker rights ,not the term unions . {it’s a bad word for the independent voter} Updating and standardizing standards that collages use for producing quality teachers , more emphasis on learning , less on sports or other activity’s . Teaching student’s how to reason and determine true answers is of the upmost importance . {this ability has been lost as is evident in our society today} Obviously there are many more that I could mention but; You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink ! I don’t profess to be a smart-ass, on the contrary, however I’ve lived awhile out in the workaday world an through trial and error have acquired a good amount of common sense balanced with critical thinking when solving problems . Observing people has been a life long endeavor !
Democrats who believe a blue wave is coming are banking on false hope. Democrats need to run as if they are coming from behind. Winning in 2018 won’t come easy. Winning for Democrats in any election hasn’t come easy. I say to Democrats “forget about a blue wave and work hard, keep your eye on the prize”.
It’s all about GOTV and will take a concentration on young voters who tend to have a short attention span.
Trump’s impetuous behavior will be a wild card. Just as he riles up progressives he also riles up his base.